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Microsoft’s (MSFT) shares steadied after jumping to a record level, bringing its…

Microsoft’s (MSFT) shares steadied after jumping to a record level, bringing its market cap up to $2 trillion

20210623
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Market Focus

Stock futures opened slightly higher Tuesday evening, holding onto gains from the regular session. The three major indexes ended higher for a second straight day, and the Nasdaq Composite surged to a record high as technology stocks outperformed. Microsoft’s (MSFT) shares steadied after jumping to a record level, bringing its market cap up to $2 trillion.

The S&P 500 extended gains into a second day as the Fed chief said he’s got “a level of confidence” that prices will eventually come down while noting that it would be “very, very unlikely” to see the kind of 1970s-style inflation. In a testimony to the House Select Subcommittee Tuesday, Powell also said that a 5% inflation environment wouldn’t be acceptable, and urged patience at evaluating data on prices.

“So inflation is larger than they expected,” said Art Hogan, chief strategist at National Securities. “That part is true. But the part about that’s going to force their hand faster than we think is the part that he’s pushing back on. I think markets have calmed down about that.”

Earlier Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams noted that a discussion about raising interest rates is still “way off in the future.” At the same time, his Cleveland counterpart Loretta Mester said very low rates for a long period and unconventional policy tools such as asset purchases can lead to too much risk-taking and financial stability issues.

Main Pairs Movement

Optimism returned to financial markets and weighed on the greenback. However, the dollar’s losses were limited and seemed corrective after last week’s surge. US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell testified before Congress on the Fed’s response to the pandemic.

High-yielding currencies posted modest intraday advances. The euro pair is currently trading at 1.1930, cable stands at 1.3940, while Aussie hovers around 0.7560. The loonie pair approached the 1.2300 level, while the ninja nears 2021 high at 110.96.

UK Health Minister Matt Hancock said covid-related data looks encouraging and suggests lockdown can fully end on July 19 as planned because a recent rise in cases is not resulting in deaths. On the other hand, concerns arose globally after the report of a new covid variant called Delta Plus, which may trigger new waves.

Little action around commodities. Gold keeps hovering around $ 1,780 per ounce, while crude oil prices retained gains. WTI settled at $73.00 a barrel, and Brent again stands on the $75.00 price level.

Cryptocurrencies were extremely volatile in the previous day. Bitcoin once tumbled below $30000, the first time since January, and now rebouned back to $33500. Ethereum alike plummeted to its lowest level since March and now struggled to get back to the $2000 price level.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold trades in a narrow range, around $1770ish, amid Powell’s testimony. In the near- term, bulls seem to be in control of gold as gold has breached the key resistance at $1770.95. In the meanwhile, both RSI and Bollinger band signal that gold still has a chance to the upside as the RSI is slightly above the oversold territory and gold is currently in the lower band of the Bollinger band, suggesting that gold is due to a bounce back. On the upside, if gold can climb to its next resistance around $1820, then it will confirm its bullish as it will trade above the 50 SMA. Otherwise, the downside momentum is still in control in the bigger outlook.

Resistance: 1786.38, 1811.25, 1836.12

Support: 1755.6, 1705.86

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD edges higher above 1.1930 level during the American trading hour. From the technical perspective, the pair remains bearish in the short- term as it continues to fall within the descending channel. The pair keeps clinging around Fibonacci resistance, the 61.8% retracement at 1.1945. On the daily time frame, the pair is scheduled to the downside as it is unable to recover above the 20 SMA. The technical indicator, RSI, retreats from the previous oversold territory whilst the MACD continues to lend supports to the bears. All in all, the pair remains skewed to the downside unless it can advance and breach above the 20 SMA, which is around 1.2100 level.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.2349

Support: 1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290 

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

From the technical aspect, after the recent decline, GBPUSD reverses from bearish to bullish in the near- term. The bulls seem to be held and supported by the technical indicators; MACD is now bullish, lending supports to bulls, whilst the RSI is outside of the overbought territory, giving the pair rooms to extend further north. On the four-hour chart, the pair is heading to its next resistance at 1.3963. To turn bullish in a bigger outlook, the bulls need to break the price to the resistance level of 1.4139 to return to its former ascending channel. So far, the sterling is moving away from the descending trend line; further move of the pair will be affected by the announcement of the BoE’s meeting.

Resistance: 1.3963, 1.4017

Support: 1.3896, 1.3787

20210623
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had picked up but should…

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had picked up but should move back toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% target once supply imbalances resolve

20210622
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Market Focus

Dow Jones futures, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures, were higher late Monday following the Dow Jones-led stock market rally. On Monday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.84% (118.5 points), while the S&P 500 rallied 1.4% (59.2 points). The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.8% or 586 points. Among the Dow Jones leaders, Apple (AAPL) advanced 1.4% Monday, while Microsoft (MSFT) moved up 1.2% in today’s stock market; Tesla (TSLA) fell 0.4% Monday, as it battles to retake its long-term 200-day moving average.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had picked up but should move back toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% target once supply imbalances resolve. “Inflation has increased notably in recent months,” Powell said in written remarks prepared for his Tuesday testimony before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, citing increases in oil prices and a “rebound” in spending as the U.S. economy reopens. “As these transitory supply effects abate, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer-run goal,” he said.

However, some Fed officials estimate that the central bank may need to tighten policy sooner than it expects. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he favors starting the process of tapering the central bank’s ongoing bond purchases “sooner rather than later,” while his counterpart from St. Louis, James Bullard, called it “appropriate” that policymakers last week opened the tapering debate. Neither Bullard nor Kaplan votes on the Federal Open Market Committee this year.

Powell’s remarks reprised his opening comments at his June 16 press conference, following a policy meeting of the central bank. Investors will tune in to the hearing Tuesday for potential questions that shed more light on his view on the pace of the economic rebound and for how much longer the central bank should keep its monetary policy on an emergency footing.

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar underwent a correction due to its extreme overbought conditions, but it remains the strongest currency across the Forex board. It lost most of its gains in the previous day during the North America session amid solid equity rallies.

Euro pair corrected up to 1.1920, holding nearby at the end of the day. ECB’s President Christine Lagarde said that the outlook for the euro area economy is brightening as the pandemic situation improves but warned about the need to remain vigilant, suggesting that tightening would be premature.

Cable surged on the optimistic market mood despite worrisome comments from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Johnson said that cases of the coronavirus Delta variant are still going up, and thus they need to be cautious on easing restrictions. He then added that data is looking good ahead of the July 19 deadline, but traveling will still be “difficult.”

Aussie trades around 0.7540, helped by the better performance of equities. Loonie pair plummeted over 100 pips daily, benefitting from the greenback’s corrective decline and soaring crude oil prices. WTI closed the day at $73.00 a barrel, while Brent climbed 2.20% during the day. Gold posted a modest daily advance. Spot gold settled at $ 1,784 a troy ounce.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold looks to pick up the recovery after dropping to the monthly low. In the near- term, it is expected to see some bulls on gold as it needs an adjustment from its oversold condition. From the technical indicators, both RSI and Bollinger band show that gold needs a rest from its bearish momentum. The RSI is currently near 30 level, indicating that gold is due to a bounce-back; at the same time, gold has reached the very lower band of the Bollinger band, which also suggests a bounce back from gold. At the moment, gold is clinging at the resistance level, 1780ish; to the upside, if gold can successfully breach the resistance, it will head toward 1811.25.

Resistance: 1786.38, 1811.25, 1836.12

Support: 1755.6, 1705.86

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD recovers back to 1.1910 level to start the week as the time of writing, correcting extreme oversold conditions from last week. The pair remains bearish as it declined below the descending channel to a new low last week; despite showing a bounce back on Monday, the outlook remains bearish. After plunging sharply to April’s support level at 1.18760, the pair bounces back a little to its immediate resistance level at 1.1945. At the moment, the RSI is located at a 30ish level, which is close to the oversold territory, giving the pair room to bounce back for an adjustment. Moreover, the MACD seems to turn positive on the four-hour chart, lending supports to bulls. As the time of writing, EURUSD is trading along with the resistance level at 1.1945; if it can successfully breach the level, it will potentially head to the next resistance at 1.2070; otherwise, the pair might consolidate in the range of 1.1945 and 1.18760 in the near- term.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.207, 1.2175

Support: 1.18760, 1.1695 

GBPUSD (Four-Hour Chart)

GBPUSD advances beyond 1.3900 today, extending the corrective pullback. From the technical perspective, the intraday retreat from the 1.3800 level could be attributed to a correction from the previous oversold condition. On the four-hour chart, GBPUSD remains bearish as it continues to fall below the descending channel; however, the short-term momentum seems to turn bullish as the technical indicator, RSI, is currently in the neutral position, giving the pair rooms to extend further north; in the meantime, the MACD has turned to positive, lending supports to bulls. To the upside, GBPUSD is expected to head toward the next immediate resistance at 1.3963, and 1.3896 will become the immediate support for the pair.

Resistance: 1.3896, 1.3963, 1.4017

Support: 1.3787

20210622
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With economic activities gradually return to pre-pandemic levels, demand for crude oil…

With economic activities gradually return to pre-pandemic levels, demand for crude oil in either industrial or household use may outrun supply in the short term, therefore causing a surge in oil price

20210621
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Market Focus

US equity market declined on four consecutive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index suffered the most, dropped 1.58%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index also fell 0.81% and 1.31% respectively. All sectors within the S&P 500 settled in the red.

The European Central Bank will allow banks to exclude deposits held at the central banks when calculating their leverage ratio until March next year. The ECB’s attitude toward a loose leverage ratio is a strong contrast to the US, which the Fed has ended a similar exemption in March. It further reveals European banks’ dependence on bank loans, rather than capital markets, as a source of corporate financing.

Michael Burry, one that is famous for winning bet against housing bubbles in 2008, has warned retail traders about “losses as the size of countries” in the event of crypto and meme-stock declines. “When crypto falls from trillions, or meme stocks fall from tens of billions, #MainStreet losses will approach the size of countries. History ain’t changed,” tweeted from Burry. Worth mentioning today is quad-witching day, with tons of stock and index options set to expire, options’ gamma will also deplete. It will take some time for gamma to refill, which leaves room for volatility to kick in.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar rally continues on Friday, with the dollar index soared to 92.2 from pre-FOMC’s 90.5, refreshed the largest weekly gain since last March. Non-US currencies are flashing oversold across four-hour and daily timeframes, and we anticipate a cool-off or rebound during next week’s trading.

All other major currencies were dropping against the dollar greenback on Friday except for the Japanese Yen. The 10-year US Treasury yields have been falling on Thursday and Friday, dipped a total of 14 basis points to settle around 1.447%. It seems like investors are pricing in high inflation shortly as observed from a tightening in the 2- and 10-year bond yield spread. Short-dated bonds are less desirable if near-term inflation remains high, the shift in demand from short-dated to longer-term bonds will create downward pressure on long rates. With rates dropping in the long-end of the yields curve, carry trade investors want to undo their position, thus enhance the value of the Japanese Yen.

Oil price continues to advance after a temporary pullback. With economic activities gradually return to pre-pandemic levels, demand for crude oil in either industrial or household use may outrun supply in the short term, therefore causing a surge in oil price. We may see yet accelerating upward momentum in fuel price as of summer approaches. WTI and Brent crude oil gained 0.87% and 0.55% on Friday.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold looks to end its five-consecutive plunge after finding some support around $1770. The yellow metal rebounded to contest a 50% Fibonacci level of $1798 earlier today, but the upward momentum quickly faded. Nonetheless, the sell-off decelerated around $1770, and has the hope to slowly recover some of its losses as daily RSI breaching oversold threshold, thus will prompt some profit-takings from sellers. The immediate resistance remains to be today’s high of $1798, followed by 1825. We cannot completely rule out a further plummet as current fundamentals are acting against inflation-hedge Gold.

Resistance: 1798, 1825, 1860

Support: 1770, 1734, 1680

USDCHF (Daily Chart)

USDCHF lifted off-post hawkish Fed announcement, appreciation in the last three days completely erased losses in the past two months. Multiple key resistance lines failed to contain the bulls, and the price went straight to challenge the March support line at 0.923, which also marks the 61.8% Fibonacci level. We expect some pullbacks to take place next week towards 0.9154, if breached then 0.908 may lend some support to the continuation of an uptrend. RSI is on the verge of an overbought zone, currently printing 69.3.

Resistance: 0.923, 0.932, 0.947

Support: 0.916, 0.908, 0.9

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable officially ended its bullish trend which started from July 2020 by breaking a big ascending trendline. Price is currently finding ground at 1.38 handle, and we expect this pair to retrace upward to validate some of the key levels such as 1.389 and 1.396. The selling bias was certainly very strong this week given reopening concerns in the UK and the Fed’s surprise. However, UK remains be top listed country to initiate a full reopening, so investors need to keep a close eye on developments of the mutated virus in Britain. Any positive headline could easily boost Sterling, though it is unlikely to recapture the mentioned upward trendline.

Resistance: 1.4, 1.422, 1.437

Support: 1.382, 1.368, 1.352

20210621
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